Evaluation of Loss of Load Expected in an Integrated Energy System

Abstract

The main objective of work presented in this paper is about the prediction of power availability in advance from Energy Sources. The wind is a highly variable energy source and behaves quite different than conventional energy sources. The participation of wind energy with conventional sources of generation is increasing rapidly and it is treated as integrated energy system. In the case of wind energy, velocity predictions are important to assess the power generation in future. The prediction of wind velocity in this paper is further helpful to estimate the reliability analysis of the system. The reliability analysis is done by evaluating the Loss of Load Expected (LOLE). The reliability analysis of complete system with incorporation of wind power along with conventional plants is achieved through prediction of wind power. Hence the loss of load expected to happen in future is helpful to take decisions. The wind velocity predictions are validated with the actual data collected from MOSDAC (Metrological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre).